In fact, it would probably be shocking if they didn't.

A Democrat sits in the White House. A Democrat sits in the governor's mansion. Democrats control Congress. Democrats control the state legislature.

Democrats have nowhere to go but down.

You can throw into the mix that 2010 is a non-presidential election year, a controversial measure (health care reform) being pushed by President Obama and congressional Democrats has many people uneasy, and the economy is still pretty awful.

It's a recipe for success if you're the political party that isn't in power, a recipe that has some bringing up comparisons to 1994, when Republicans gained majorities in Congress and the state House.

In the real world, real people actually get placed on the ballot. That's why generic polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

In congressional races, incumbents -- especially those in office more than one or two terms -- have huge (and unfair) advantages over challengers. Gerrymandered districts and the ability to raise money are the two most obvious.

Heath Shuler, who represents the mountain counties that make up the 11th Congressional District, and Larry Kissell, whose 8th District stretches from Fayetteville to Charlotte, are the lone congressional Democrats from the state likely to be vulnerable in 2010. If Democrat Bob Etheridge runs for U.S. Senate, that would leave the 2nd District seat up for grabs.

Thirty years ago, Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local." Still is. Always will be.